Search

Afterburn – Post-Fire Cascading Hazards in Mountain Regions

Afterburn is a research initiative to strengthen competence on post-fire cascading hazards in Norway through mapping, integrated analysis, knowledge development, and laboratory and field testing.

Submenu

The newly published report Klima i Norge 2100 indicates that Norway is now ten times more likely to experience heatwaves comparable to recent events than in pre-industrial times. Together with climate projections, this implies earlier onset and longer duration of fire seasons in Norway. Mountain ecosystems, which are already highly susceptible to hazards such as landslides and debris flows, are undergoing particularly rapid environmental change.

As a result, forest fires are emerging as a critical disturbance in Norwegian mountainous regions. The removal or burning of vegetation increases soil erosion and runoff, changing the geotechnical properties of the affected soil and therefore increasing also the likelihood of cascading post-fire hazards, including landslides and debris flows. These processes pose substantial threats to life, property, infrastructure, and watershed systems. Although such compound events are expected to become more frequent, the links between forest fire disturbances and cascading hazards remain largely overlooked in Norway. 

The project will advance the research competencies on post-fire cascading hazards in Norway. This will be achieved through three sub-objectives (SO):

SO1: Identify spatial distribution, severity, and predisposing factors of fire disturbances, and produce integrated post-fire multi-hazard susceptibility maps validated against documented cascading events. 

SO2: Strengthen research collaboration and knowledge exchange through guest presentations, workshops, seiminars, and visits to relevant institutes. 

SO3: From lab to field investigation of post-fire cascading mechanisms at recently burned sites to assess changes in slope hydrology and stability.

This project aims to advance research activities to the state-of-the-art level in this increasingly important field. It will support the professional development of researchers through international collaboration, joint publications, and the exchange of expertise with leading partners worldwide. The project will also lay the foundation for applying the developed methods to other environments and contexts, strengthening regional resilience to emerging post-fire cascading hazards through research collaborations and future funding opportunities.

The project is divided into three main tasks, reflecting the three sub-objectives mentioned in the section “About the project”.

Task 1 (addressing SO1):
Post-fire hazard potential mapping

This task will provide the first assessment of post-fire hazard potential in Norway, identifying regions where forest fires could amplify landslides, avalanches, floods, and erosion. Using national, European, and global datasets, we will integrate wildfire occurrence, burn severity, terrain, soils, vegetation, and climate extremes to develop a national post-fire hazard potential index. This index will highlight areas where steep slopes, burn frequency, land cover and climate conditions converge to create elevated multi-hazard susceptibility. Spatial analyses and hotspot mapping will be validated against existing inventories and documented events.

Task 2 (addressing SO2):
Research collaboration and funding opportunities

We will explore collaborations to develop a larger research project under upcoming EU, national and other relevant funding calls. To strengthen partnerships, we plan to host invited presentations and knowledge exchange sessions (workshops, or visits) with key institutions in Europe and outside Europe (through existing partnership projects) where related work is ongoing. These activities will position NGI for leadership in future EU initiatives on transboundary and climate-resilient solutions.

Task 3 (addressing SO3):
Assessing post-fire slope hydrology and stability

We will explore opportunities for laboratory or field studies at recently burned sites. Sampling from such areas will ensure realistic post-fire conditions and support assessment of changes in soil water retention and infiltration and geotechnical parameters due to burned vegetation roots.

The project team:

Vittoria Capobianco – Senior Researcher (Project Manager)

Amanda DiBiagio – Engineer

Graham Gilbert – Lead Geoscientist

Luca Piciullo – Lead Geoscientist

Dylan Mikesell – Principal Geophysicist

  • The newly published report Klima i Norge 2100 indicates that Norway is now ten times more likely to experience heatwaves comparable to recent events than in pre-industrial times. Together with climate projections, this implies earlier onset and longer duration of fire seasons in Norway. Mountain ecosystems, which are already highly susceptible to hazards such as landslides and debris flows, are undergoing particularly rapid environmental change.

    As a result, forest fires are emerging as a critical disturbance in Norwegian mountainous regions. The removal or burning of vegetation increases soil erosion and runoff, changing the geotechnical properties of the affected soil and therefore increasing also the likelihood of cascading post-fire hazards, including landslides and debris flows. These processes pose substantial threats to life, property, infrastructure, and watershed systems. Although such compound events are expected to become more frequent, the links between forest fire disturbances and cascading hazards remain largely overlooked in Norway. 

  • The project will advance the research competencies on post-fire cascading hazards in Norway. This will be achieved through three sub-objectives (SO):

    SO1: Identify spatial distribution, severity, and predisposing factors of fire disturbances, and produce integrated post-fire multi-hazard susceptibility maps validated against documented cascading events. 

    SO2: Strengthen research collaboration and knowledge exchange through guest presentations, workshops, seiminars, and visits to relevant institutes. 

    SO3: From lab to field investigation of post-fire cascading mechanisms at recently burned sites to assess changes in slope hydrology and stability.

    This project aims to advance research activities to the state-of-the-art level in this increasingly important field. It will support the professional development of researchers through international collaboration, joint publications, and the exchange of expertise with leading partners worldwide. The project will also lay the foundation for applying the developed methods to other environments and contexts, strengthening regional resilience to emerging post-fire cascading hazards through research collaborations and future funding opportunities.

  • The project is divided into three main tasks, reflecting the three sub-objectives mentioned in the section “About the project”.

    Task 1 (addressing SO1):
    Post-fire hazard potential mapping

    This task will provide the first assessment of post-fire hazard potential in Norway, identifying regions where forest fires could amplify landslides, avalanches, floods, and erosion. Using national, European, and global datasets, we will integrate wildfire occurrence, burn severity, terrain, soils, vegetation, and climate extremes to develop a national post-fire hazard potential index. This index will highlight areas where steep slopes, burn frequency, land cover and climate conditions converge to create elevated multi-hazard susceptibility. Spatial analyses and hotspot mapping will be validated against existing inventories and documented events.

    Task 2 (addressing SO2):
    Research collaboration and funding opportunities

    We will explore collaborations to develop a larger research project under upcoming EU, national and other relevant funding calls. To strengthen partnerships, we plan to host invited presentations and knowledge exchange sessions (workshops, or visits) with key institutions in Europe and outside Europe (through existing partnership projects) where related work is ongoing. These activities will position NGI for leadership in future EU initiatives on transboundary and climate-resilient solutions.

    Task 3 (addressing SO3):
    Assessing post-fire slope hydrology and stability

    We will explore opportunities for laboratory or field studies at recently burned sites. Sampling from such areas will ensure realistic post-fire conditions and support assessment of changes in soil water retention and infiltration and geotechnical parameters due to burned vegetation roots.

  • The project team:

    Vittoria Capobianco – Senior Researcher (Project Manager)

    Amanda DiBiagio – Engineer

    Graham Gilbert – Lead Geoscientist

    Luca Piciullo – Lead Geoscientist

    Dylan Mikesell – Principal Geophysicist

Portrait of Vittoria Capobianco

Vittoria Capobianco

Senior Researcher Climate Adaptation and Hydrodynamics vittoria.capobianco@ngi.no
 +47 459 17 953